It has been a few months now that sales in the Canadian residential market have been decreasing. This slowdown is beginning to have an impact on price growth, with the Teranet-National Bank HPI remaining relatively stable between August and September with a slight increase of 0.1%, the smallest monthly increase since January 2020. For its part, the 12-month price growth came down from its record high observed in August and stood at 17.3% in September. This is the first time in fourteen months that annual growth has been lower than that observed in the previous month. Although the annual price increase in September was lower than what we saw in the previous two months, it was still the third highest 12-month growth in history. In addition, prices remain up 10% or more in 87% of the 32 urban areas surveyed, even though some extremely hot markets are beginning to cool. All in all, barring a more significant rise in mortgage rates, we do not foresee a downward trend in prices in the coming months. It should be noted that the level of sales remains historically high and that the inventory of properties for sale continues to be extremely low.

October 2021