Reports

At the national level, resale home prices were still gaining momentum in March. But this is based on home sales reported in land registries. Home sales reported by real estate boards are timelier, being recorded soon after the sale becomes unconditional. The most important real estate boards all mentioned a clear break of activity during the second half of March due to measures to contain propagation of COVID-19. This was confirmed when CREA reported a monthly drop in home sales from February to March in 25 of the 26 major Canadian markets, with sharp declines in most of the markets covered by the Teranet-National Bank HPI. This cooling of activity should soon be reflected on the house price indexes. We expect the loss of momentum to be more prevalent in the metropolitan markets located in Central and Eastern Canada (Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal and Halifax) which so far have pulled the national HPI up.

April 2020

At the national level, resale home prices were gaining momentum in February. The 0.4% monthly gain in the Composite index was double the average of the previous ten years for a month of February. In particular, after 12 consecutive monthly declines, Vancouver HPI rose in each of the last five months, reflecting the fact that Vancouver resale market recently returned to balance. Sure, we still saw weakness in other regions, such as the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) where markets were still favorable to buyers. But CREA just reported a rather generalized increase in home sales in February, including for Calgary and Edmonton. Unfortunately, then came the outbreak of Covid-19 and its impact on oil prices and disruptions in the supply chain. The unprecedented sanitary measures imposed by the authorities to tackle the pandemic will severely impact business activity and jobs over the coming months. In that situation, the home resale market should be heavily curtailed for the coming months.

March 2020

Canada’s resale home prices continued to rise in January. The HPI of five of the six markets located in Central Canada or in the East (Montreal, Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau and Halifax) performed well over the last year, the exception being Quebec City. At the opposite, the five righthand charts show negative (Vancouver, Calgary Edmonton) or barely positive (Winnipeg, Victoria) y/y HPI growth. The sub-index for Central and Eastern Canada grew 5.2% over the last 12 months, against a 2.5% fall for the Western sub-index. This is consistent with the various conditions prevailing on the regional markets in Canada. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio published by CREA, home resale markets in the Prairie Provinces (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta) are buyers’ markets, while markets in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes Provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island) are sellers’ markets. Recently, the Vancouver market went from favorable to buyers to balanced. The behaviour of Vancouver Teranet-National Bank HPI, which rose over the last four months, is consistent with this improvement in market conditions.

February 2020

The last two monthly gains in the national HPI might seem moderate, but they are in fact larger than usual for this time of the year when resale activity is typically low. For instance, the 0.2% increase in December compares to an average of 0.1% for this month over the last 11 years. Indeed, after seasonal adjustment, the national HPI ended the year with a 5-month string of gains, including a strong 0.7% rise in December. This is quite a turnaround from the weakness experienced in the first half of 2019. Indexes for Toronto, Hamilton and more recently Vancouver, Victoria and Quebec City contributed to this trend reversal, while indexes for Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal and Halifax performed well throughout the year. Only the indexes of the largest metropolitan areas in the Prairies, namely Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg remained lethargic over the second half of the year. This is consistent with end-of-year CREA
data showing that the home resale market in the Prairie Provinces is still favorable to buyers. At the opposite, markets are favorable to sellers in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime Provinces, and balanced in B.C. For 2020, expect home prices to accelerate in all these regions except the Prairies.

January 2020

The national HPI increase in November is atypical at this time of the year, as it dropped seven times in that month over the last ten years. Furthermore, the two index monthly drops among the 11 metropolitan areas comprised in the national HPI constitute the lowest diffusion of declines in November over the last decade. If we add 14 other metropolitan areas not comprised in the national index, we have seven index drops last month, which is also the lowest diffusion of declines for a month of November over the decade. Consistent with the recovery of home sales, the two consecutive gains in Vancouver’s index contributed to strengthen the national HPI. Meanwhile, Toronto’s index stagnated over the last two months as home sales plateaued. But this is not worrisome, as the market remains balanced. Montreal’s index displayed the most sustained performance, with 17 rises over the last 20 months, but it is second to Ottawa when it comes to cumulative growth over the period (15.4% for Ottawa against 11.0%
for Montreal).

December 2019