Post Category: News and Economic Reports
August 18, 2023
Canada: Spectacular jump in house prices in July

Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivières. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

August 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
July 20, 2023
Canada: Spectacular jump in house prices in June

Following the recovery of the residential housing market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI jumped 2.2% from May to June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, but also the largest price rise in a single month since November 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.7% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased part of this correction, which now stands at just 6.2%. This rebound is even more impressive given that 81% of cities covered in June saw an increase during the month, the best diffusion of growth since the composite index peaked last year. While prices may continue to be supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market to continue their progression in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate hikes and the economic weakness expected in subsequent quarters will represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

July 2023

 

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
June 19, 2023
Home prices rise for the first time in 11 months

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI resumed its upward trend (+0.6%) after ten consecutive monthly declines, which saw home prices correct by a total of 8.6%. This turnaround in property prices is due in particular to the rebound in the resale market over the past four months. This recovery is taking place against a backdrop of record demographic growth, which is accentuating the shortage of housing supply on the market. With domestic housing starts falling to their lowest level in three years in May, there is no reason to believe that the shortage of properties on the market will be resolved any time soon. However, the resumption of the monetary tightening cycle by the Bank of Canada in recent weeks and the expected slowdown in economic growth could moderate price growth later this year.

June 2023

 

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
May 17, 2023
Teranet-National Bank House Price Index: Housing prices stabilize in April

After seasonal adjustment, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI remained essentially unchanged from March to April, recording a slight decline of 0.1% after a drop of 0.8% the previous month. This stabilization coincides with a resurgence of activity in the property resale market. A record cumulative drop of 8.7% from its spring 2022 peak was recorded during this downturn caused by extremely aggressive monetary tightening. In the coming months, it is highly likely that the composite index will return to short-term growth, supported by the renewed vigor of home sales in a context where supply remains low on a historical basis. This revival of the real estate sector is partly explained by the stabilization of interest rates. Indeed, now that the Bank of Canada has stopped raising its key rate in recent months, some buyers probably perceive less uncertainty and are taking action. A second factor explaining this increase is the strong demographic growth we are experiencing in the country, especially in large urban centers that attract newcomers. It remains to be seen whether this strength in the real estate market will be temporary in a context where interest rates are still high, lending conditions are tightening, and the labour market is not immune to a downturn.

May 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
April 20, 2023
Record annual price decline in March

Even though the resale housing market is showing its first signs of stabilization and the non-seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank Index has seen its first monthly increase in ten months, it is still too early to say that the real estate market in Canada is on the rise. In fact, once adjusted for seasonal effects, the composite index contracted by 0.8% during the month, as price growth is generally stronger in the spring with the start of the high season. It should also be noted that, on an annual basis, the index in March fell by 6.9% compared to March 2022 and thus equaled the record contraction recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. With the Bank of Canada expected to keep its policy rate in restrictive territory for much of 2023 and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we anticipate that the price correction that currently stands at 8.8% could continue through the end of 2023 (-5% additional), but this assumes that policy rate hikes are over, and declines begin at the end of the year. Although corrections are observed in all markets covered by the index (except Sherbrooke), the CMAs that have experienced the largest price growth over the past two years are also those that have recorded the sharpest declines to date. Ontario and British Columbia thus appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, as affordability problems are less acute.

March 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
March 17, 2023
Prices still down in February

The Teranet-National Bank Index continued to decline in February so that the cumulative decline in prices since their peak in May 2022 totaled 11.2%, the largest contraction in the index ever recorded. The current decline in prices has even surpassed the 9.2% loss in value that occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. With the Bank of Canada expected to keep its policy rate in restrictive territory well into 2023 and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still anticipate a total correction of about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, but this assumes that policy rate hikes are over and declines begin at year-end. Although corrections are being seen in all markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have seen the largest price growth over the past two years are also those that have seen the largest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes thus appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less vulnerable, as affordability issues are less acute.

March 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
January 19, 2023
Historic loss of value in the residential market

The Teranet-National Bank HPI continued to decline in December so that the cumulative drop in prices since their peak in May 2022 totaled 10.0%, the largest contraction in the index ever recorded. The current decline in prices has even surpassed the 9.2% loss in value that occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there is some consolation in that the seasonally adjusted monthly decrease in prices in December was less significant than in November, going from -1.0% to -0.3%. With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still expect the total correction to be limited to about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, but this assumes that policy rate hikes are coming to an end and that declines occur in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are occurring in all markets covered by the index (except Lethbridge), the CMAs that have experienced the largest price growth over the past two years are also the ones that have experienced the largest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic environment.

January 2023

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
December 19, 2022
Prices down from their peak across the country

For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, all of the cities covered by the Teranet-National Bank HPI have seen prices decline from their peak reached over the past 12 months, marking the end of a prosperous period for the Canadian real estate market. Indeed, price declines were observed in all markets covered, with the last cities on the list to experience contractions being Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Trois-Rivières. Since its peak in May 2022, the national composite index has already fallen by 9.0%, almost as much as during the last financial crisis (-9.2%). With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still anticipate a total correction of about 15% in house prices nationally by the end of 2023, assuming that the policy rate does not increase further and begins to decline in the second half of 2023.Although corrections are being observed in the vast majority of markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have experienced the most significant price growth over the past two years are also those that have recorded the sharpest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia, and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic context.

December 2022

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
December 01, 2022
Housing affordability: Back to the 1980s!

Canadian housing affordability deteriorated for a seventh consecutive quarter in Q3`22 as we remain in the midst of the longest sequence of declining home affordability since the 1986-1989 episode (11 quarters).

Q3 2022

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
November 30, 2022
Housing affordability: The worst deterioration in 41 years in Q2 2022

Housing affordability in Canada worsened by 10.4 points in Q2’22, a sixth consecutive quarterly deterioration. The Q2 print marked the worst quarterly and annual deteriorations in 41 years. The mortgage on a representative home in Canada now takes 63.9% of income to service, the most since 1982.

Q2 2022

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416.869.7124
Email: