In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 2.0% from the previous month. Although this is a significant increase, it is now the second consecutive month in which the monthly price increase is lower than the previous month (2.8% in May and 2.7% in June). The July index was led by five of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%), Halifax (3.0%), Montreal (2.5%), Hamilton (2.1%) and Vancouver (2.1%). Growth was more moderate in Victoria (1.8%), Winnipeg (1.6%), Toronto (1.6%), Calgary (1.5%), Edmonton (1.2%) and Quebec City (1.0%). It was the fifth consecutive month in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before.
The July rise was consistent with the increase in the number of home sales over the last several months as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For the 11th straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. However, the most recent statistics show a moderation in the number of home sales, which could mean a slowing of price rises in the coming months.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The July composite index was up 17.8% from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain on record. The 12-month rise was led by five markets: Halifax (33.4 %), Hamilton (30.1 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (28.9 %), Montreal (21.4 %) and Victoria (21.1 %). Lagging the countrywide average were Toronto (17.4 %), Vancouver (17.1 %), Winnipeg (10.5 %), Quebec (10.3 %), Calgary (7.5 %) et Edmonton (6.5 %).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In July all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 33.1% for St. Catharines to 36.1% for Barrie.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. In July all of these indexes were up from the previous month, with Sherbrooke (+3.6 %) and Trois-Rivières (+3.7 %) standing out. All seven were also up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 5.2 % for Lethbridge to 31.5 % for Abbotsford-Mission.
The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes advanced in all but Thunder Bay. The 12-month gains ranged from 12.5 % for Thunder Bay to 40.1 % for Belleville.
 The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice.
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada