Post Category: Monthly Reports
August 19, 2021

Price growth remains strong, but slows in July

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 2.0% from the previous month. Although this is a significant increase, it is now the second consecutive month in which the monthly price increase is lower than the previous month (2.8% in May and 2.7% in June). The July index was led by five of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (3.7%), Halifax (3.0%), Montreal (2.5%), Hamilton (2.1%) and Vancouver (2.1%). Growth was more moderate in Victoria (1.8%), Winnipeg (1.6%), Toronto (1.6%), Calgary (1.5%), Edmonton (1.2%) and Quebec City (1.0%). It was the fifth consecutive month in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before.

The July rise was consistent with the increase in the number of home sales over the last several months as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For the 11th straight month, the number of sale pairs[1] entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. However, the most recent statistics show a moderation in the number of home sales, which could mean a slowing of price rises in the coming months.

The July composite index was up 17.8% from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain on record. The 12-month rise was led by five markets: Halifax (33.4 %), Hamilton (30.1 %), Ottawa-Gatineau (28.9 %), Montreal (21.4 %) and Victoria (21.1 %). Lagging the countrywide average were Toronto (17.4 %), Vancouver (17.1 %), Winnipeg (10.5 %), Quebec (10.3 %), Calgary (7.5 %) et Edmonton (6.5 %).

Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In July all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 33.1% for St. Catharines to 36.1% for Barrie.

Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. In July all of these indexes were up from the previous month, with Sherbrooke (+3.6 %) and Trois-Rivières (+3.7 %) standing out. All seven were also up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 5.2 % for Lethbridge to 31.5 % for Abbotsford-Mission.

The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes advanced in all but Thunder Bay. The 12-month gains ranged from 12.5 % for Thunder Bay to 40.1 % for Belleville.

[1] The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice.

Metropolitan area Index Level % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak date
Report By:

Daren King
Economist
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for his special collaboration on this report.

The historical data of the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is available™ at www.housepriceindex.ca.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; for a complete description of the methodology, contact us.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in eleven metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax. The national composite 11 index is the weighted average of the eleven metropolitan areas.

Disclaimer

This monthly report, its layout and design as well as its content, including (without limitation) index data and related information and materials (“Index Data”) are protected by copyright law, both individually and as a collective work or compilation, and by trade-mark law, and other applicable laws.  National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) and Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”) grant to you a limited non-exclusive, non-transferable license to view, copy and print this monthly report, provided that all copies that you make must be solely for your non-commercial, personal use, and must retain all copyright and other notices that are on this web site.  Except as provided in the previous sentence, you may not (for either commercial or non-commercial use) use, distribute, sell, modify, transmit, revise, reverse engineer, republish, post or create derivative works (where applicable) of any content of this monthly report without the prior written permission of Teranet and National Bank (who are referred to collectively herein as the “Index Data Providers”).  Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property contained in this monthly report may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.  You acknowledge and agree that you will not acquire any rights or licenses in the content of this monthly report.

The Index Data is for informational purposes only, and the user of the information contained in the Index Data assumes the entire risk of any use made of the Index Data. You understand and agree that the Index Data is provided "as is" and neither National Bank of Canada (“NBC”) nor Teranet Inc. (“Teranet”, and together with NBC, the “Index Data Providers”) warrants the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, originality, timeliness or any other characteristic of the Index Data.

The Index Data is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Further, none of the Index Data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Reproduction, redistribution or any other form of copying or transmission of the Index Data without the Index Data Providers’ prior written consent is strictly prohibited. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, the Index Data and other Index Data Provider intellectual property may not be used as a basis for any financial instruments or products (including, without limitation, passively managed funds and index-linked derivative securities), or used to verify or correct data in any other compilation of data or index, or used to create any other data or index (custom or otherwise), without the Index Data Providers’ prior written permission.

In no event shall any of NBC, Teranet, their respective affiliates, any of their or their direct or indirect information providers nor any other third party involved in, or related to, compiling, computing or creating any of the Index Information (collectively, the "Index Data Provider Parties") have any liability to any person or entity for any damages, whether direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, loss of use, lost profits or revenues or any other economic loss) arising in any manner out of your use or inability to use any of the Index Data contained in this monthly report, even if such party might have anticipated, or was advised or notified of, the possibility of such damages.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of the rate of change of Canadian single-family home prices.  The measurements are based on the property records of public land registries. The monthly indices cover eleven Canadian metropolitan areas: Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Halifax. The metropolitan areas are combined to form a Canadian composite index.

In addition to their informational role, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ was developed to be a benchmark for financial professionals. Teranet and NBC offer licenses covering all index-linked products.

Teranet offers e-services to the legal, real estate, government, financial and healthcare markets. Combining our focus on customer needs with technical sophistication and operational simplicity, our comprehensive products and services include property information, transaction management, collateral risk management, geospatial information, workflow software and enterprise solutions.

National Bank of Canada is an integrated provider of financial services to retail, commercial, corporate and institutional clients. It operates in three business segments—Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management and Financial Markets—with total assets in excess of $216 billion as at October 31, 2015. Through its nearly 20,000 employees, National Bank offers a complete range of services that include banking and investment solutions for individuals and businesses as well as securities brokerage, insurance and wealth management services. National Bank is the leading bank in Quebec and the partner of choice for small and medium-sized enterprises. It is also the sixth largest bank in Canada with branches in almost every province. Clients in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world are served through a network of representative offices, subsidiaries and partnerships. Its head office is located in Montreal and its securities are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

For further information about upcoming reports, please contact:

Derek Tinney
Director, Product
Teranet Inc.
Phone: 604-751-2252
Email:
Michael Pertsis
Director, Mortgage Derivatives
National Bank Financial
Phone: 416-869-7124
Email: