Price growth continues to decrease in August
In August, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.0% from the previous month. It is now the third consecutive month in which the monthly price increase is lower than the previous month (2.8% in May, 2.7% in June and 2.0% in July). The August index was led by six of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (2.1%), Hamilton (1.7%), Montreal (2.1%), Quebec City (1.3%), Winnipeg (1.3%) and Victoria (1.3%). Growth was equal to the national average in Halifax (1.0%), while it was more moderate in Vancouver (0.8%), Calgary (0.8%), Toronto (0.7%) and Edmonton (0.6%). This is the sixth consecutive month in which gains were observed in all regions included in the composite index.
The slowdown in price growth can be linked to the slowdown in housing sales reported in recent months by the Canadian Real Estate Association. In fact, when analyzing the 12-month growth in the number of sale pairs used to calculate the 11 metropolitan indices, this is the first time in twelve months that they have not increased in all cities. Moreover, this slowdown in price is expected to continue in the coming months as the unsmoothed composite index adjusted for seasonal effects rose only 0.1% from July.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The August composite index was up 18.4% from a year earlier, a 13th consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain on record. The 12-month rise was led by five markets: Halifax (32.4%), Hamilton (30.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (28.8%), Montreal (21.6%) and Victoria (19.8%). Lagging the countrywide average were Toronto (18.0%), Vancouver (17.8%), Winnipeg (11.2%), Quebec City (11.2%), Calgary (8.4%) and Edmonton (7.0%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In August, all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 32.6%% for Guelph and Peterborough to 34.7% for Barrie.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. In August, all of these indexes were up from the previous month, with Trois-Rivières (+3.4%) and Saint John (+2.8%) standing out. All seven were also up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 5.6% for Lethbridge to 31.1% for Abbotsford-Mission.
The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes advanced in all but Sudbury. The 12-month gains ranged from 9.6 % for Thunder Bay to 45.3 % for Belleville.
 The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice.
|Metropolitan area||Index Level||% change m/m||% change y/y||From peak||Peak date|
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada