Prices stabilized in September
In September, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM remained relatively stable, increasing by only 0.1% compared to the previous month. This marks the fourth consecutive month in which the monthly price increase has been lower than the previous month. The September index was led by eight of the 11 constituent markets: Winnipeg (1.0%), Victoria (0.6%), Toronto (0.4%), Quebec City (0.4%), Halifax (0.4%), Hamilton (0.3%), Edmonton (0.3%) and Calgary (0.2%). Prices remained stable in Montreal, while decreases were observed in Vancouver (-0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.4%). This was the first time in seven months that gains were not observed in all regions included in the composite index.
The slowdown in price growth can be linked to the slowdown in housing sales reported in recent months by the Canadian Real Estate Association. In fact, when analyzing the 12-month growth in the number of sale pairs used to calculate the 11 metropolitan indices, this is the second time in thirteen months that they have not increased in all cities. Moreover, this slowdown in price is expected to continue in the coming months as the unsmoothed composite index adjusted for seasonal effects rose only 0.2% from August.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The September composite index was up 17.3% from a year earlier. After reaching record annual growth in August, this is the first time in fourteen months that growth was lower than the previous month. The 12-month rise was led by five markets: Halifax (31.7%), Hamilton (28.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (25.5%), Victoria (20.2%) and Montreal (19.3%). Growth was equal to the average in Toronto (17.3%) and less vigorous in Vancouver (16.7%), Winnipeg (11.8%), Quebec City (9.2%), Calgary (8.5%) and Edmonton (5.7%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In September, all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 28.5% for Guelph to 34.0% for Barrie.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. In September, all of these indexes were up from the previous month, with Moncton (+3.1%) and Sherbrooke (+2.9%) standing out. All seven were also up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 7.8% for Lethbridge to 30.7% for Moncton.
The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes advanced in all but Kingston. The 12-month gains ranged from 11.6 % for Thunder Bay to 41.2 % for Belleville.
 The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index is based on the repeat-sales method, i.e. on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice.
|Metropolitan area||Index Level||% change m/m||% change y/y||From peak||Peak date|
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada