Home price growth resumed in November
In November, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, after remaining unchanged in October. The November index was led by seven of the eleven constituent markets: Halifax (1.2%), Victoria (1.0%), Toronto (0.8%), Hamilton (0.6%), Vancouver (0.4%), Quebec City (0.3%) and Calgary (0.1%). Prices remained stable in Winnipeg and Montreal, while decreases were observed in Edmonton (-0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%). This was only the third time in nine months that gains were not observed in all regions included in the composite index.
The resumed price growth should be viewed in conjunction with the recent strength in the resale market. Indeed, with the recent increase in mortgage interest rates and the anticipated increases next year, some people who secured advantageous interest rates have probably brought forward transactions, which explains in part the strength of the last few months. In addition, the lack of supply on the market is certainly putting upward pressure on prices, which should continue in the short term.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The November composite index was up 15.2% from a year earlier. After reaching record annual growth of 18.4% in August, this is the third consecutive month in which growth is lower than the previous month. The 12-month rise was led by six markets: Halifax (29.8%), Hamilton (24.9%), Victoria (18.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (18.0%), Toronto (16.3%) and Montreal (15.5%). Growth was lower than average in Vancouver (13.9%), Winnipeg (10.6%), Calgary (8.3%), Quebec City (8.0%) and Edmonton (4.8%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In November, all of these regions except Peterborough were up from the previous month, with the year-over-year variation ranging from 24.8% in Guelph to 30.4% in Barrie and Brantford.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 13 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec; and Moncton and Saint John, New Brunswick. On a monthly basis, the index decreased in two of these seven regions in November. The Saint John and Kelowna regions still stood out from the pack with growth of 2.5% and 2.4% respectively compared to the previous month. All seven were up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 5.1% for Lethbridge to 31.6% for Moncton.
The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes advanced in all but London and Belleville. The 12-month gains ranged from 16.6% for Thunder Bay to 34.2 % for Belleville.
|Metropolitan area||Index Level||% change m/m||% change y/y||From peak||Peak date|
Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada