In December, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, the second consecutive monthly increase. The December index was led by eight of the eleven constituent markets: Victoria (2.1%), Halifax (1.9%), Hamilton (1.2%), Montréal (1.1%), Québec (1.1%), Vancouver (1.0%), Toronto (0.9%) and Calgary (0.3%). Price decreases were observed in Winnipeg (-0.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%) and Edmonton (-0.4%).
The resumed price growth should be viewed in conjunction with the recent strength in the resale market. Indeed, with the recent increase in mortgage interest rates and the anticipated increases next year, some people who secured advantageous interest rates have probably brought forward transactions, which explains in part the strength of the last few months. In addition, the lack of supply on the market is certainly putting upward pressure on prices, which should continue in the short term.
- Composite 11
- All Metropolitan Indices
- British Columbia
- New Brunswick
- Nova Scotia
The December composite index was up 15.5% from a year earlier. After declining annual growth over the past three months, growth picked up in December. The 12-month rise was led by six markets: Halifax (30.7%), Hamilton (25.4%), Victoria (19.7%), Toronto (16.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (16.3%) and Montreal (15.6%). Growth was less vigorous than average in Vancouver (14.2%), Quebec City (10.4%), Winnipeg (10.1%), Calgary (8.5%) and Edmonton (4.3%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe – Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In November, all of these regions except Peterborough were up from the previous month, with the year-over-year variation ranging from 25.0% in Guelph to 30.9% in Barrie.
Indexes not included in the composite index also exist for 11 markets outside the Golden Horseshoe. Seven of them are in provinces other than Ontario: Abbotsford-Mission and Kelowna, B.C.; Lethbridge, Alberta; and Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke, Quebec. On a monthly basis, the index increased in four of these five regions in December. The Abbotsford-Mission region still stood out with a 2.1% increase over the previous month. All five were up from a year earlier, their gains ranging from 4.6% in Lethbridge to 28.3% in Abbotsford-Mission.
The remaining six regions are located in Ontario outside the Golden Horseshoe: London, Kingston, Belleville, Windsor, Thunder Bay and Sudbury. On a monthly basis, the indexes increased in half of these regions. The 12-month gains ranged from 16.2% in Thunder Bay to 32.4% in Belleville.
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Economics and Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada