Author: Carli

OPINION: The last two monthly declines in the Composite index are mostly due to Toronto (top chart), but there are signs that the downward pressure on prices in that city is fading. For instance, its unsmoothed index (see note on methodology next page) fell 0.7% in October after declining 3.7% in August and 2.1% in […]

OPINION: Housing starts were better than consensus expectations in October. Following a drop in September, Canadian residential construction increased and continued to perpetuate a level that is higher than demographic needs (estimated to be around 190K). Starts in the Toronto market dropped over 20% after a 34% drop the prior month. A more normal level of the active listings to sales […]

Affordability worsened for a ninth quarter in a row in Q3, the longest run in three decades. It’s worth noting that the Q3 deterioration – the most acute in 9 quarters – was exacerbated by the impact of higher mortgage rates resulting from Bank of Canada summer rate hikes (top chart). At the national level, […]

OPINION: September’s decline of the national composite HPI is the largest in seven years (top chart), due to the fall of Toronto’s index. The Toronto’s unsmoothed index (see note on methodology next page), has shrunk in each of the last three months, for a cumulative loss of 7.5% (middle chart). Many might worry about the […]

OPINION: The recent loosening of the Toronto home resale market translated into Toronto’s HPI dropping in August. In fact, Toronto’s unsmoothed index (see note on methodology next page), which had already dropped in July, fell 4.2% in August (top chart). That being said, Toronto active-listings-to-sales ratio, an indicator of market conditions, turned from being very […]

OPINION: The recent loosening of the Toronto home resale market was clearly felt on Toronto’s (unsmoothed) subindex for dwellings other than condos, which declined 1.6% from June. Moreover, after seasonal adjustment, this subindex declined 2.2% (see middle table). Based on a survey of real estate boards that we conducted earlier this month, home sales declined […]