Reports

Home price weakness in some major metropolitan areas is evidenced by a second
consecutive decline in the national Composite Index. In the most expensive markets,
new mortgage qualification rules and the rise in interest rates have cooled demand
significantly. For instance, in Vancouver, November was a fourth month in a row without
a rise in home prices, for a cumulative drop of 1.8%. In Toronto, prices declined over the
last three months, for a total loss of 0.4%. Markets are also weak in Alberta, where prices
did not rise for a fifth month in a row in Calgary, and for a third consecutive month in
Edmonton (left chart), for cumulative declines of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. There are,
however, some areas of strength in the country. In Montreal, for example, home sales
are at a record level so far in 2018 (right chart). With interest rates set to rise more
slowly than previously thought, hopes for a soft landing of the Canadian home resale
market are still warranted.

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December 2018

Home prices are showing signs of weakness at the national level (left chart), but the
market is far from being homogeneous. For example, Vancouver showed no gain for a
third month in a row, for a cumulative loss of 1.2%. Moreover, the weakness extends to
condos as well as to more expensive dwellings. This is consistent with the fact that since
the beginning of the year, home sales declined markedly in both segments. For Toronto,
the picture is mixed, with condos prices still remaining on an upward trend. Montreal is
at the other end of the spectrum. The second largest metropolitan region in Canada
enjoyed the most vigourous home resale market over the last few months (right chart).
But with interest rates set to rise again in the coming months, we don’t see much upside
for home prices.

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November 2018

In Q3, affordability worsened in no less than 9 out of ten urban markets which explains the
13th consecutive deterioration of our urban composite index. Expensive housing markets
such as Vancouver and Toronto slowed down markedly in 2018 and home prices even
declined in Q3 due to the combined effect of rising mortgage rates (up for a fifth consecutive
quarter) and macro prudential measures. Despite lower home prices, homebuyer
affordability failed to improve as wages were down in those markets (left chart). Elsewhere,
Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau experienced the sharpest deteriorations in affordability
among urban centers in Q3 but for another reason: home prices surged respectively by 2.1%
and 2.5% Q/Q. These markets appear to be unaffected by rising interest rates and tighter
credit standards as shown by resale market conditions being strongly tilted in favor of sellers.
Looking at the national picture, while a significant portion of home buyers have been priced
out of single-family homes, demand is currently strong for condos as shown by prices rising
6.8% over the past year (non-condo prices are flat). As a result, the affordability deterioration
was more pronounced in this segment (vs. non-condo) in each of the last four quarters (right
chart).

Full Report

When seasonal effects are removed, the Composite price index edged up in September, recovering some of the ground lost in previous months. While this applies in particular to Toronto, it is not the case for Vancouver and Calgary, where the seasonally adjusted indices extended a string of declines (left chart). This downtrend in home prices is consistent with the weakness in home sales reported by the respective real estate boards of these two metropolitan areas. At the opposite, seasonally adjusted indices extended a string of solid increases over the last few months in Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau (right chart). Again, this is consistent with the performance of the home resale market. In Montreal, home sales in September were up 8% from a year ago and at their highest level for a month of September in 9 years. In Ottawa-Gatineau, the market is almost in the “favorable to sellers” territory judging from the new-listings-to-sales ratio.

The attached report along with selected research from the Economics and Strategy Group can also be accessed by clicking the link below:

October 2018

OPINION: The published Composite index rose in August for a fifth month in a row, but these rises
only reflect usual seasonal patterns over this time of the year. Indeed, after seasonal
adjustment, the Composite index was actually flat in August after drops in June and July.
So, at the national level, the national market is certainly not displaying underlying
strength. This is mostly a reflection of Toronto and Vancouver, the two most important
real estate markets in Canada. The published index for Toronto showed a fifth monthly
increase in a row, but its seasonally adjusted counterpart displayed the opposite with
five consecutive declines. In Vancouver, the seasonally adjusted index was down for a
third month in a row (left chart). In August, seasonally adjusted indices declined or were
flat in six of the nine other metropolitan regions covered. That being said, there are
areas displaying underlying strength, such as Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau, whose
indices recorded a string of unusually large increases over the past few months

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September 2018

OPINION: The Composite index rose in July for a fourth month in a row, but these rises were all
below the historical average for these months. Indeed, after seasonal adjustment, the
Composite index was flat in July after a drop in June. The same phenomenon applied to
the Toronto index, where at the opposite of the published index, the adjusted index
declined over the last four months (left chart). The adjusted index declined over the last
two months in Vancouver. This means that the recent rises in these indices reflected
only seasonal pressures, not an underlying trend. For Toronto, the recent declines in the
seasonally adjusted index were due to the sub-index for dwellings other than condos,
down a cumulative 2.1%. Meanwhile, the condo index was up 1.6% (right chart). These
numbers are consistent with market conditions, tighter for condos than for other
housing.

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August 2018 (more…)