Reports

With renewed activity in the residential real estate market in recent months, the seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank composite index rose by 1.6% from July to August, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. As a result, the composite index is now just 2.1% below its all-time peak of April 2022, following a record cumulative decline of 8.6% over one year. The widespread nature of August’s rise is also noteworthy, as this is the first time since March 2021 that monthly increases have been observed in all the CMAs included in the composite index. However, there is reason to believe that this strength is likely to be short-lived, given the slowdown observed in the resale market over the last two months in connection with the renewal of the Bank of Canada’s monetary tightening cycle. Although price declines are expected in the coming months due to the growing impact of interest rates and the less favourable economic context, property price decreases should remain limited thanks to the support of historical demographic growth and the persistent lack of housing supply.

September 2023

Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivières. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

August 2023

After seasonal adjustment, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI remained essentially unchanged from March to April, recording a slight decline of 0.1% after a drop of 0.8% the previous month. This stabilization coincides with a resurgence of activity in the property resale market. A record cumulative drop of 8.7% from its spring 2022 peak was recorded during this downturn caused by extremely aggressive monetary tightening. In the coming months, it is highly likely that the composite index will return to short-term growth, supported by the renewed vigor of home sales in a context where supply remains low on a historical basis. This revival of the real estate sector is partly explained by the stabilization of interest rates. Indeed, now that the Bank of Canada has stopped raising its key rate in recent months, some buyers probably perceive less uncertainty and are taking action. A second factor explaining this increase is the strong demographic growth we are experiencing in the country, especially in large urban centers that attract newcomers. It remains to be seen whether this strength in the real estate market will be temporary in a context where interest rates are still high, lending conditions are tightening, and the labour market is not immune to a downturn.

May 2023