Post Category: News and Economic Reports
August 14, 2018
Neither strength nor deep weakness

OPINION: The Composite index rose in July for a fourth month in a row, but these rises were all below the historical average for these months. Indeed, after seasonal adjustment, the Composite index was flat in July after a drop in June. The same phenomenon applied to the Toronto index, where at the opposite of […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
August 14, 2018
Seasonal pressures explain the rise of the Composite index in June and July

In July the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.8% from the previous month.[1] As in June, the gain might seem large but was below the historical average for the month (1.0% for July). If the index were purged from seasonal variations, the so-called “seasonally adjusted” index would have retreated in June […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
July 12, 2018
Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ has made up the ground lost in second half of 2017

In June the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.9% from May. Though large at first glance, the increase was the third-smallest for June in the last 14 years. If we ignore the seasonal component of monthly variations, we cannot speak of a soaring index. The latest run of monthly increases is […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
July 12, 2018
In June, the index recovered the ground lost in H2 2017

OPINION: With June’s rise, the Composite Index just recovered the ground lost during H2 2017 (left chart). Does this mean that the Canadian home resale market is about to enter into a new frenzy? No. June’s rise in the index, impressive at first sight, was in fact weak for this time of the year. Indeed, […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
June 13, 2018
Teranet-National Bank HPI: The stabilization of home prices confirmed in May

OPINION: May’s rise in the Teranet-National Bank HPI confirmed the stabilization of home prices that took place since the end of last year, following a correction in H2 2017 (top chart). It is true that this stabilization was accompanied by a shift of price momentum in favor of condos in Toronto and Vancouver. Given the […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
June 13, 2018
The Stabilization Of Home Prices Confirmed In May

In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM  was up 1.0% from the previous month. This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend that prevailed over the second half of 2017. The last monthly gain is one tick less than the May average of 1.1% over the 20 years of index history. […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
May 14, 2018
Moderate rise in the Composite Index in April

OPINION: After a difficult H2 2017, the Composite Index has stabilized in recent months (top chart). Moderate rises will likely continue to characterize the Composite index over the coming months, as conditions in the two major constituent home resale markets, Toronto and Vancouver, are now balanced (current active-listings–to-sales ratios close to their long-term average). Let’s […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
May 14, 2018
Index up moderately in April

After a flat March, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM rose 0.2% in April. In the 20-year history of the index it was the fourth-smallest April advance, after those of 2009 (a recession year), 2013 and 2015. There were nevertheless gains in eight of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed: Quebec City (1.5%), Hamilton […]

Post Category: Monthly Reports
April 12, 2018
A flat March for the Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™

The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was unchanged in March – the first time outside a recession when the March composite index was not up at least 0.2 percentage points from February and the first time outside a recession when March indexes were up for only four of the 11 metropolitan markets of […]

Post Category: News and Economic Reports
April 12, 2018
Composite Index flat in March

OPINION: Without Vancouver, the Composite Index would have declined in March and in 5 of the 6 preceding months (top chart). Speaking of Vancouver, inferring from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver data, seasonally adjusted home sales have declined markedly over the last two months and the listings-to-sales ratio, while still in the sellers’ market […]